Defensive Backs Have Become The Hardest Position to Rank and Measure
NAME THE BEST DEFENSIVE BACK IN THE LEAGUE. With other positions, it’s a breeze. Whether it’s quarterback, easy– Patrick Mahomes. With receivers, you would have an argument for multiple: Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, or Tyreek Hill. Go to linebackers and the answer presents itself in the form of Fred Warner.
But not for the DB’s. Instead, the conversation devolves into a bunch of muttered “I don’t knows” and a hodgepodge of scattered responses. It’s tough to pinpoint just one, but unlike nearly every other position, there simply isn’t an homerun argument for a clear-cut answer. Defensive backs seldom get the love they deserve, instead having to take on a thankless job in a growingly pass-heavy league. Yet, it’s become a near impossibility to tell the world just who is the best at their position.
Rewind just a couple of generations ago and you’ll find trophy winners clear as day. In the 2000’s, the game was dominated by Champ Bailey and Darelle Revis. Think even more recent with players like Richard Sherman and Carlos Rogers having cornerback showdowns on the West Coast. But in today’s day and age, where the position has become a keystone of any proper defense– it’s tough sledding to narrow down the sector’s bigwigs.
The rise of analytics was supposed to fix this. With an ever-complicated game and plenty more data to scour through, adding numbers within context was meant to alleviate the problem. The data scientists of the football world viewed this conundrum as an opportunity– to showcase exactly what the newly introduced and hot tool was all about. Instead, it’s done much of the opposite. Adding to a byzantine set of arguments for the best defensive back, the data has only made cases for players more of a maelstrom than in past.
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Most casual fans would pick out Jaire Alexander and Sauce Gardner from a lineup when faced with the probe. The argument is there. They’re always in the limelight and for good reason– the NFL world loves the unique. Alexander’s bubbly and comic personality makes for a good character and Gardner’s game speaks for itself on the field. But, take a closer look at the analytics and you’ll quickly find that the case for one player quickly becomes a muddy cluster of numbers, gameplay, and a changing game.
The quickest acid test for a defensive back is simply catch percentage. Based on targets, how many completions did they allow? When you start looking at DB success through that lens, opinion on who really is the best back starts to shift immediately. Using a minimum of 50 targets, Martin Emerson Jr. stifled offenses, only allowing 35.4% of targets to complete. Followed by Joey Porter Jr., L’Jarius Sneed, and Denzel Ward. Quickly we begin to realize that none of the superstar big names fall on the list.
| Player | Completion % (Min. 50 Targets) |
| Martin Emerson Jr. (CLE) | 35.4 |
| Joey Porter Jr. (PIT) | 38.5 |
| L’Jarius Sneed (KC) | 38.6 |
| Denzel Ward (CLE) | 39.2 |
| Greg Newsome II (CLE) | 43.1 |
| Darious Williams (JAX) | 45.6 |
As a basic litmus strip, completion percentage is a good test of where a defensive back lies. After all, their job is to get the number as close to zero as possible. However, completion percentage has its flaws. It takes into account errant throws, discounts great throws and catches, and fails to recognize so many other factors that could make a case for the best cornerback or safety.
The next best metric is the deserved catch percentage, which only includes catchable balls— narrowing down the sample size and forcing the number to be more accurate. When you pull up the numbers for that, you get a brand new set of DBs, ones who might not have made the cut when you include all throws.
Leading the list is Lions’ rookie Brian Branch, who took the league by storm by Week 1 of the NFL season with two interceptions of Patrick Mahomes. At 65.0% completion– the number nearly doubles from simple completion percentage. The DCP also takes into account drops, which the completion percentage doesn’t sew in. Now, the picture gets more clear. There are repeats, a good sign of consistency making a solid argument for top dog in the corner world.
CLEVELAND’S GREG NEWSOME II SHOWS UP AGAIN as does Jacksonville’s Darious Williams with rates of 65.8% and 67.2% respectively. Newsome has shown an innate ability to be a lockdown corner in the league, but rarely gets the name recognition as his other peers. After all, the Browns seem to believe in him, opting to pick up his fifth-year option– a choice relegated to only the most valuable players on their rookie contracts.
Newsome’s case only gets stronger when looking at even more advanced statistics. Newsome’s coverage success rate, tied for second along with Bears’ DB Jaylon Johnson. The 24-year-old Northwestern grad’s plight for national recognition shows exactly why defensive backs are an enigma to narrow down.
| Player | Deserved Catch Completion % |
| Brian Branch (DET) | 65.0 |
| Greg Newsome II (CLE) | 65.8 |
| Darious Williams (JAX) | 67.2 |
| JC Jackson (LAC) | 68.2 |
| AJ Terrell (ATL) | 68.8 |
| Alontae Taylor (NO) | 68.9 |
The fact of the matter is– defensive back is a lone standing position in football. The better you do, the less reps you get. Think about it, and just like any peewee player understands– human nature isn’t always rational but when it comes to calling plays, it’s seldom not. When a defensive back starts to lock down a player, the simple thought would be not to throw it that way any more. When teams see this on film and a player starts to get much more notoriety in the league, they’ll gameplan around him unless they absolutely can’t.
And this shows in the statistics– players like Derwin James and Darius Slay only get a dearth of targets, rarely surpassing 70 targets a season. This limits their sample size to pull from, meaning their numbers are tough to populate when trying to dive deep into the weeds. Players who perform the best at defending the pass, don’t get passed on. Teams gameplan away, teams do everything to get different matchups. In nearly every position– even on defense, performance means you get more reps to put on tape. Not at defensive back.
That’s a tough pill to swallow for anyone trying to make a solid argument for any DB to take the cake. The fact that the window for a definitive answer is quickly closing should put some fear and cast doubt to some analysts. But for others, it’s an opportunity to put down the calculator and truly turn on the tape.
Old school style, oftentimes the best way to diagnose a cornerback is to understand what scheme they play in, their tendencies– whether or not they can bait a quarterback successfully or get left in the dust, what coverage they excel in, and in which they struggle.
That’s when the names of the stalwarts come up like Alexander and Gardner. They might not have the stats, but one simple look at the tape and you’ll see there’s not many receivers they can’t match up against.
Analytics attempt to bridge the gap– trying to put context into a numerical format. However, some numbers speak louder than others. With each different metric and filter you attempt to put on the position, you’ll get a different permutation and combination every time. PFF’s tight coverage measure is another valuable insight to look at. Darius Slay leads the chart– with tight coverage 35.0% of the time. Trailing is Ahkello Witherspoon and Martin Emerson Jr. While this might sound like the end all, be all. TCV doesn’t account for volume, which was the problem Darius Slay had that rocketed him to the top of his list while only maintaining a 63.5 PFF grade.
As with any analytic measure, they’re not without fault. Passer rating against seems like a final dagger through the hearts of analytic skeptics– but it suffers the same problem that completion percentage did with errant throws, dropped balls, and throwaways.
Defensive backs might be one of the most valuable positions in the NFL today, but grading them and analyzing them has become a clusterjam of different metrics– all vying for the top. The nature of the position makes it hard too, the ideal DB wants low volume but enough to make an impact and prove it. Sometimes the best analytic is throwing on the tape and cracking a smile whenever a DB makes a good play.
