The Running Back Market Has Crashed, Here’s Why RB Prices Are At An All Time Low
It wasn’t meant to be like this. In fact, rewind just over ten years ago and no one would believe you. The running back market is at rock bottom. Just last year Indianapolis Colts savior Jonathan Taylor held out prior to the season, demanding a pay raise that matched his production. Colts’ brass and owner Jim Irsay spearheaded the attack on Taylor’s contract– ultimately leading to a compromise.
But, no matter which way you cut it– Taylor lost. And that’s become the standard for running backs in the 21st century. Running backs haven’t seen the exponential growth in pay as other positions have– namely quarterbacks. For a time, the two positions were making nearly the same amount of money, now, quarterbacks are some of the NFL’s greatest commodities– while running backs are seen as expendable and have been left behind.
It’s not hard to attribute what the issue is. The simple fact is that the NFL has become a passing league. What used to be run by Walter Payton and Barry Sanders has quickly turned into a profession dominated by Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. The disparity between the two positions has only gotten greater as time has went on– even with pay between nearly every other position reaching the same amount of growth.
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This year, a plethora of numerous running backs are available on the open market pending free agency. Several household names are up in the air, including New York Giants bona fide franchise back Saquon Barkley. Just a year ago, Barkley was seeking a long-term deal, a contract negotiation that ended with the former Penn State All-American being hit with the franchise tag, a deal that netted him around $11 million for the 2023 season. Still, organizations believe that might be too high as Barkley has shown injury problems in his career– which for running backs is one of the shortest overall.
While Barkley has been the sole bright spot of a desolate New York offense, his position has been a glass ceiling for why he hasn’t gotten his big payday yet. The running back slot has seen a major lag in their importance to the game. As the NFL becomes more and more pass happy, backs are seemingly left in the dust, with teams rarely opting to extend backs past their rookie contracts.
The generally accepted notion is that the position is one of the most replaceable in the NFL, with fresh talent coming in from college every year, and at an overly simplistic view, is a vestige of the game’s past that has adapted to modern day football however still remains primitive in nature.
So, teams have now begun the endless cycle of mainly acquiring backs through the draft, not extending them– even if they’ve shown the ability to be potential game breakers. Because, in the eyes of a team, a good running back can help a team but rarely make or break them.
With that mentality, the running back position has become the fourth-least paid in the league, barely edging out long snappers, punters, and fullbacks. Backs on average make about $1.808 million while the latter make $1.069 million, $1.52 million, and $1.724 million respectively. Just 20 years ago, quarterbacks and running backs made around the same money. Both positions’ highest cap hit were within a couple million dollars of each other, hovering around the $4-6,000,000 mark. Now, the quarterback market has exploded, setting records year-over-year— all while the back market has stayed relatively stagnant.
Quarterback cap hits have increased 457%. Compare that with the running back market which has only seen a jump of 290%, nearly half of the quarterback total.
The reluctance and the risk-aversion by NFL teams is not without cause however. The entire argument is predicated upon a long history of paying running backs with monster contracts, which most of the time ends up burning a team.
Todd Gurley’s deal with the Rams, Ezekiel Elliot’s massive extension with the Cowboys, and Le’Veon Bell’s infamous situation with the Steelers that sent him to New York where he ended up being one of the worst free agent signings in recent history. Dalvin Cook’s exile from Minnesota to the Jets and Miles Sanders’ inability t o make an impact on an impoverished Carolina team continue to drive home the point that running backs just don’t hold much value in the NFL anymore.
Teams have begun to understand the economics of the running back position. Backs get beat up the most out of any position, making health concerns and longevity a serious problem when deciding on a contract. So, teams shy away, using the analogy of an expensive, whittled down pencil to justify them paying new backs coming into the league instead. Gurley’s knees after the Rams paid him big money deteriorated quickly, bringing into perspective how costly a long-term signing can be if it goes south.
So, organizations have collectively decided to run the odds and gamble on consistent new talent coming into the league to satiate the running back position on any given team.
It’s not personal, it’s just business.
