Trevor Lawrence’s Massive $275 Million Deal Simply Does Not Make Sense
The 2021 quarterback class was a bust. Looking back at one of the most overhyped coupling of pass-throwers almost three years ago tells us that maybe predictions aren’t always right. But one worked out– maybe. Trevor Lawrence has made it out somewhat unscathed. The only first-round quarterback to remain on his original team, Lawrence just signed a five-year, $275 million deal to stay in Jacksonville.
Eyebrow-raising at first, the deal draws sharp question marks from across the league. Since his entrance into the league, Lawrence leads the league in interceptions, has a mediocre 85.0 passer rating, and has only one playoff win to show– it’s baffling how it even got this far.
The quarterback market in the NFL has been on an upwards trajectory that rivals a rocket ship, but an average of almost $60 million a year for what most in the NFL consider an average quarterback? We’ve seen teams pay subpar quarterbacks big money in order to avoid a regime change. After all, the New York Giants not only paid Daniel Jones but doubled down on him. But Lawrence’s payday feels different– almost eerily.
Jacksonville has locked down Trevor Lawrence for the next seven years– with a contract that rivals the highest-paid in the league, Joe Burrow in terms of average annual value. First, let’s look on the bright side. Jacksonville has finally found a quarterback worthy of a massive contract. For years the team has been akin to plenty of QB turnover, resembling a turnstile more than a successful football team. Prior to Lawrence, the Jags had been anything but successful, last having a decent stab at the playoffs in 2017 with Blake Bortles at the helm.
Lawrence has brought the team stability at the very least. It’s better to be average than bad in the NFL and Trevor Lawrence’s play has propelled the team into playoff contention nearly every year he’s been under center. The Jags made the right move by signing Lawrence now instead of later. Quarterback contracts have been on a tear lately and it would’ve cost them more in the long run and in opportunity cost if they waited.
The structure of the deal plays well in the team’s favor as well. With Lawrence still being on his rookie contract, he will only take up around 6% of the Jaguars’ cap space in 2024. His cap number is reasonable the following three seasons as well — at $17 million, $24 million and $35 million, respectively. While the contract gives Lawrence spoils with over $200 million in guarantees– it remains a friendly deal for the team.
Lawrence on the other hand is yet another pawn in a bulging quarterback market that shows no signs of stopping. With a bubble, usually comes collateral damage whether it actually pops or not. On paper, Lawrence has done little to demand a contract of this magnitude.
The 24-year-old ranks middle of the pack amongst qualified quarterbacks with a minimum of 200 passes when it comes to touchdowns, on-target percentage, and average net yards per game according to Sports Info Solutions. The issue? If even the most mediocre quarterbacks are getting paid like Elon Musk, it makes it a lot harder for teams to retain superstar quarterbacks if they can’t afford them. That means concessions in the department of weapons and protection– ultimately you might end up with an Aaron Rodgers situation.
In 2023, Lawrence didn’t have a single game with more than two passing touchdowns and his EPA plummeted from sixth in the season prior to a lowly 19th. The Jaguars were not a saccharine team by any stretch of imagine last season. A misutilization of Calvin Ridley paired with a lack of receiver support led to Lawrence not being able to put up the numbers needed to justify his uber-wealthy deal.
However, players who get paid these blank check amounts usually are able to work past that. Let’s not get it twisted, Lawrence has kept the Jaguars at the status quo, not elevated them past it. The Jaguars as a whole were the epitome of average– not under the aegis of an noncompetitive AFC South anymore, Jacksonville struggled to make a playoff push, instead faltering towards the back half of the season instead of progressing. In the final four games of the season Lawrence played some of his streakiest football yet, recording a PFF score in the 40’s two times while barely breaking 70 once.
None of those statistics scream “pay the man”, but the Jaguars seem to think differently.
“With this five-year extension, the vision we had when we selected Trevor first overall in 2021 has become a reality,” general manager Trent Baalke said in a statement. “Our objectives have always been aligned. As an organization, we have consistently messaged the importance of extending our core players, and Trevor is a foundational talent that we will continue to build around in our quest for a championship. With his talent, work ethic, leadership and competitive drive, we are confident the best is yet to come.”
The Jaguars have been steadfast in their support for Lawrence, even after their late-season blunder this year. The AFC South isn’t getting any easier, especially with the Texans’ rising talent and the Colts’ underdog mentality– it’s easy to see why the Jaguars paid him. Yet, this might cost the team in the long run, without knowing salary cap figures in the far future, forking over a huge lump of cash to a quarterback that may not improve is a risky gamble.
A DUVAL FLASHBACK: Trevor Lawrence Has The Jaguars Ready to Pounce With His Swagger
Sure, the Jaguars must do a better job of building a better team around Lawrence. That means a better defense, an efficient usage of Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk, and Travis Etienne being more productive. But at the end of the day, this is Lawrence’s fight. His 83.8% catchable rate falls 23rd out of 29 eligible quarterbacks– by far in the bottom half. Sports Info System’s catchable rate excludes any extraneous plays such as spikes and throwaways. Catchable rate could be argued to be a pure quarterback stat, the ball just has to be thrown in a relative vicinity for a receiver, something that doesn’t bank on external factors.
Lawrence also hasn’t performed well on third-down either, earning a 85.9 passer rating– good for 19th amongst quarterbacks in 2023. When under pressure, Lawrence tumbles to 33rd amongst 41.
Whatever the reason, Lawrence must prove his ability to live up to his contract in time, especially as salaries boom and the Jaguars eventually expect a return on their major investment.
“I am beyond grateful to be able to continue my career in Jacksonville,” Lawrence said last week. “I know that the best is yet to come and this is only the beginning. The drive to bring a championship to Duval is bigger than ever.”
