NFL division rivals play each other twice a year, a huge chunk of the season– so we predict who’s going to take the cake this year.
Every NFL season, expectations are created by fans and analysts alike, and every year, fans and analysts swing and miss with some rare exceptions. For this upcoming season, I will be attempting to correctly predict the best and worst division performances in each conference, giving my reasons for why the division placed there and how each team within the division will likely perform.
Over the past few seasons there has been a lack of consistency other than the Kansas City Chiefs being dominant in the playoffs, the Green Bay Packers beating the Chicago Bears, and the Buffalo Bills winning the AFC East.
Along with the unpredictability of predicting anything to do with the NFL, there is also the issue of what it means to be the best or worst division. Divisions are ranked upon the performance of the best team in the division and the differences are often marginal. For example, take the NFC in 2021, where the NFC West was dead last, but the Los Angeles Rams, who won the division were 12-5 which was good for one win behind the first seed in the NFC. That same year, it was both fourth seeds, the leaders of the worst divisions that faced off in the Super Bowl.
In 2021, the best division in the AFC was the South, and the worst was the North. On the other hand, the NFC’s best was the North.. In 2022, the AFC’s best was the West, and the worst was the South. Then in 2023, the AFC North reigned and the AFC South was once again at the bottom.
I selected the winner of each game from each week for the entire regular season six times over the course of the last three weeks. Each time I finished my predictions, there was minimal change between the best and worst divisions.
NFC Worst: NFC East
The worst division in the NFC will be the NFC East. I have the Philadelphia Eagles winning the division at 9-8, with a very short lead over the Cowboys. I don’t see the 20 year streak of no back-to-back winners in the NFC East coming to an end this upcoming season. The Eagles have a strong defense, which will likely improve after the poor end to their last season, which led them to being 30th in points allowed and 26th in yards allowed. However, their pitfalls are their offensive struggles, specifically their QB Jalen Hurts’ play will prevent them from moving themselves and the division up in the rankings. When Jalen Hurts plays against the blitz, his performance decreases immensely, leading to a passer rating of 69.8, which is 28th among all QBs against heavy pressure. Teams will continue to load the box and try to go after Hurts, especially with the loss of bona fide future hall-of-famer Jason Kelce.
For the Cowboys, I believe that they will suffer on offense without a threat of running the ball, as their current RB is likely to be Ezekiel Elliott, who has lost his spark in recent years. While their defense may not have the same issues as the other side of the ball, they do lack depth in the secondary and on the defensive line. Their star-studded defensive coordinator, Dan Quinn, who was partially responsible for their defensive success left for Washington as well. While their defensive composition tips the higher-quality end of our scale, the injury bug may come to hurt the unit, and their offensive line will be relying too much on the pass game, which may not be enough against a team that can pressure their only three proven reliable receivers: TE Jake Ferguson, WR CeeDee Lamb, and WR Brandin Cooks.
The New York Giants will play this season with Daniel Jones throwing the ball, which is reason for concern. Especially with their overall disappointing 2023 season, the Giants have to have substantial improvement across nearly all parts of their roster– which hasn’t been the case. The best parts of the team are the offensive and defensive lines, and there is some scattered talent elsewhere, but it’s unlikely they will be much of a threat in 2024.
The Washington Commanders will likely go through the usual issues that come with a rookie quarterback and I don’t believe that the rest of their roster has enough support for newbie Jayden Daniels. The best hope for the team in this upcoming season is that Dan Quinn will be able to give the defense enough of a boost to allow their offense enough time to catch up; however, with the talent of their young QB, I do believe the team will have a bright future if they can fill up their roster with a little bit more talent.
NFC Best: NFC North
On the top of the NFC, the North will be the best. In a tight race for the first seed with the Packers, I have the Detroit Lions leading the division with 12 to 13 wins. Their success from last season will likely not end anytime soon, as long as Dan Campbell is the head coach. Campbell has been able to save a sinking ship– a trait that adds such a ferocity that players scratch and claw in any way possible to achieve a win. There may not be another team that plays with as much heart as the Lions.
The Packers are the next best team in my predictions for the NFC North, lingering just one or two games behind the Lions. They are likely to be the youngest team in the NFL for the second season in a row, after releasing some of their oldest players, and the young energy can be seen flying off the TV screen on gameday. With the offensive abilities of Matt Lafleur and the talent from the young team, especially from QB Jordan Love, they will be fighting for the top spot in the NFC for years to come.
Following behind, I have the Bears. The Bears proved that their defense is very solid at the end of last season, with the best run defense and the fifth most takeaways in the NFL. On the other side of the ball, their offense struggled last season with below average play from Justin Fields. However, this past offseason, the team has been revamped with the arrival of WR Keenan Allen, WR Rome Odunze, and first overall pick QB Caleb Williams. They are likely to experience some typical trial and error from their rookie QB, but he has enough talent around him to make a playoff push in this upcoming season.
The last team to make an appearance in my predictions for the NFC North is the Minnesota Vikings. Their defense is middle of the pack in almost every category, and their offense didn’t make any big improvements. In fact, they went from having one of the better QBs in the league with Kirk Cousins to rookie QB JJ McCarthy. While McCarthy may improve into a very talented QB in the future, his current talent will likely fall far below that of Kirk Cousins. McCarthy will also have to build a connection with his number one receiver, Justin Jefferson, who paired up very well with Cousins. This season may not be the year for the Vikings, but their future looks bright with their current talent, assuming a bit more talent is added next offseason.
AFC Worst: AFC West
Just as the worst division in my predictions in the NFC may have come as a surprise, so might my predictions for the AFC. For the worst division in the AFC for the 2024 season, I have the AFC West. Leading the AFC West are the Kansas City Chiefs with 11 wins. Just like last season, the Chiefs don’t have the most star filled offense in the passing game other than QB Patrick Mahomes. However, Mahomes may be all they really need to get things done through the air. They also added speedsters WR Xavier Worthy, the 40 yard dash record holder at the NFL combine, and WR Hollywood Brown. TE Travis Kelce is also still around, although after a slight decrease in production last season, there is speculation about his age becoming an issue. While their offense will have no negative pull on the team’s record, they will be held together the most by the defense, which ranked second in points and yards allowed. If it wasn’t for such a challenging schedule and the improvement of other divisional teams, the Chiefs would have a much better record, but that does not mean they won’t be successful once the post season rolls around.
Next in the AFC West, I have the Los Angeles Chargers. While the Chargers lack weapons, except for a few rookies and WR Josh Palmer, they do have their young QB Justin Herbert and an excellent offensive line. They also have an excellent defensive roster, especially rushing off the edge. Even with all of that, I find the best thing about the Chargers to be their new head coach, Jim Harbaugh, who led the 49ers to the Super Bowl in 2012, and won the College Football National Championship last season with the University of Michigan. The team may not have the most talent, but they will likely have a lot of heart with such a great coach at the helm.
Next up, I have the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders are another team who, like the Lions and Chargers, play with heart because of a beloved head coach. Antonio Pierce took over as interim head coach last season and immediately after his promotion, the team began performing much better, especially on defense, ranking in the top 10 and even top five in multiple categories after his takeover. The team has also added QB Gardner Minshew, who is an improvement over Aidan O’Connell and Jimmy Garoppolo, who both struggled when in the pocket last season. Minshew played most of the season for the Indianapolis Colts last season after rookie Anthony Richardson got hurt, and the Colts were one game away from making the playoffs and even winning the division. The Raiders will likely be making a playoff push in this upcoming season.
Last in the AFC West, that leaves the Denver Broncos. Last season, at their best, the Broncos went on a strong five game win streak, beating some of the best teams in the league, but it ended very quickly with one close loss to the Texans and QB Russell Wilson getting benched. Since then Sean Payton has cleared the team of many players, including Wilson and All-Pro Safety Justin Simmons. They have now rebuilt their roster with a lot of young pieces. While they may have a bright future, this upcoming season will be a struggle for these young players against such strong competition.
AFC Best: AFC North
Now for the best in the AFC, I have the AFC North. To top the North and lead the division in first are the Baltimore Ravens at 13-4. Last season, the Ravens were just the same, the first seed in the AFC with a 13-4 record. Based on their performance and a lack of significant change, I don’t see much of a difference in performance. Additionally, John Harbaugh will likely continue his strong performance as head coach.
Backing up the Ravens, the Cincinnati Bengals will presumably return to their previous form with a healthy Joe Burrow at QB. The team has made some improvements which will help on both sides of the ball, but especially offense, where they have signed tackle Trent Brown and TE Mike Gesicki. The only big negative change for the team is the loss of Joe Mixon who they traded to the Texans. Now, the biggest ‘if’ for the Bengals lies with the future of WR Tee Higgins, who has requested a trade and seemingly refused to partake in team activities.
Third in the division are the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are one team that can never be ruled out of the playoff or divisional race, as long as they have head coach Mike Tomlin leading the way who has led the team to 17 straight winning seasons. Now they have improved their roster by adding QB Russell Wilson, who played well for a while with the Broncos last season. If Tomlin was able to earn a winning record and a playoff spot with the Steelers when QBs Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph were starting, then the team’s potential sky-rockets with Wilson. It is also likely that the Steelers will continue to have a great defense and the rest of the team has a lot of scattered talent which should be more than enough for Tomlin to earn another playoff spot this upcoming season.
Last in the AFC North, I have the Cleveland Browns. The Browns have one of the best defenses in the league and a lot of offensive weapons with an amazing offensive line. However, they don’t have a franchise QB. Joe Flacco has stepped away from the team in free agency, although he is still a free agent. Deshaun Watson has not performed up to expectations and now they have signed Jameis Winston to fight for the starting spot. However, Winston, just like Watson, hasn’t performed very well in the last few seasons. It is likely that their offense will struggle and possibly hold back their defense in this upcoming season, preventing them from earning a playoff spot.
Now, the only thing that any of us can do is wait for the season to start. We are just past the halfway mark for the offseason and the unpredictability will begin soon enough.
