Even with the NFL increasing the salary cap, teams are still left with decisions to make about their cap space– here’s what franchises could do to alleviate some of that pressure.
With the 2024 NFL salary cap number coming out this week, high payroll teams know exactly where they need to get in order to be cap compliant, and the rest of the field knows exactly how much they have to spend. The salary cap rose an unprecedented $30 million from the 2023 mark all the way up to $255.4 million, the largest increase in cap since its implementation in 2011. This was nearly $15 million more than what was projected, and it gives some of the highest spending teams some much needed relief. That being said, there are plenty of teams that need to be cap compliant by March 13th, and every other team will be looking for ways to shed salary in order to bring in more talent. I will be looking at three of the most likely players who will fall victim to being a cap casualty for each conference.
All cap/savings numbers are from overthecap.com
AFC
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Kansas City Chiefs, WR)
Savings – $12 Million, Dead Money – $2 Million
The reigning Super Bowl Champions are looking to do something that no team in NFL history has ever done. Three-peat. It was the first thing that came out of generational talents like Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes when they were on the podium after this year’s Super Bowl win. Two in a row is great, but three in a row is legendary. This was the best defense Mahomes has played with and a major hiccup for this years Chiefs team was at the wide receiver position. The Chiefs led the league in drops and “MVS” was a huge problem in this area. He finished the regular season with 21 catches for 315 yards and one score. For a player making $14 million, this is absolutely unacceptable. The Chiefs need to bolster their wide receiver room and that will start with saving $12 million by cutting Valdes-Scantling.
*As of publishing, Marquez Valdez-Scantling was cut by the Kansas City Chiefs
Eric Kendricks (Los Angeles Chargers, LB)
Savings – $6.5 Million, Dead Money – $2.75 Million
There may not be a team that got saved by the inflated salary cap more than the Los Angeles Chargers. With new leadership in Jim Harbaugh and Joe Hortiz, drastic change is on the horizon for this squad. While they have four big contracts on over-the-hill stars, I believe Kendricks is a sure lock to be a cap casualty. Keenan Allen will surely be extended, allowing his cap hit to be spread over multiple years. Khalil Mack may be traded coming off a resurgent year where his value is surely at its peak. Joey Bosa is a necessity at a premium position on this roster that lacks sufficient depth. Mike Williams is a guy I could also see being cut as the Chargers are in a prime position to take a stud pass catcher with the 5th overall pick. The one guy who underwhelmed and underperformed the most was Eric Kendricks. He was brought in to captain the defense and help a Chargers defense that finished 20th in the league in yards per game given up. They imploded and ended up finishing 28th in that category this year. He is on the wrong side of 30 and a surefire cut candidate with this new look Chargers team.
Allen Robinson (Pittsburgh Steelers, WR)
Savings – $10 Million
Dead Money – $1.9 Million
Four years ago, I would have said having Allen Robinson on the roster for $12 million dollars would have been an absolute steal, but the course of Robinson’s career has changed dramatically since the turn of the decade. The Steelers are his third team in three years and he has yet to hit 500 yards in a season since 2020. He was nonexistent in this year’s Steelers offense that is desperate to find a spark. They need to solidify their quarterback room and provide all the talent around him that they can. Allen Robinson is nowhere near the answer here and the $10 million in savings will be better spent elsewhere. Expect Robinson to be cut shortly.
Honorable Mentions:
- Nyheim Hines (Buffalo Bills, RB)
- Savings – $4.6 Million
- Dead Money – $500,000
- Tim Patrick (Denver Broncos, WR)
- Savings – $9.5 Million
- Dead Money – $6 Million
- Hunter Renfrow (Las Vegas Raiders, WR)
- Savings – $8.2 Million
- Dead Money – $5.5 Million
NFC
*Harrison Smith (Minnesota Vikings, S)
Savings – $15.3 Million, Dead Money – $3.9 Million
A lifetime Viking who has been a fan favorite for his entire 12 year career may have just played his last season in Minnesota. The six-time pro bowler did not have a bad year for the Vikes by any means, but he is entering his next season at 35 and is experiencing the typical age related decline we would expect at the safety position. While the Vikings have plenty of cap space, the extra $15 million saved here would go a long way for their offseason plans. They are going to be giving a monster contract to Justin Jefferson who is expected to be the highest paid non-quarterback in football, as well as retaining the always-expensive Kirk Cousins or figuring out the quarterback spot. With these situations on hand after missing the playoffs last year, expect Minnesota to disappoint the Vikings faithful by cutting Smith.
*Russell Gage (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, WR)
Savings – $10 Million, Dead Money – $3.5 Million
The Buccaneers had a surprising season that included an incredible playoff run with Baker Mayfield at the helm. Franchise cornerstone Mike Evans had a typical Mike Evans year at the wide receiver position and is in line for a huge payday after putting up his 10th straight 1,000 yard season to go along with 13 touchdowns. Chris Godwin continued to be one of the better number two’s in the league while rookie speedster Trey Palmer showed the ability to be a solid third receiver on a rookie contract. This situation leaves Russell Gage as the odd man out just one year after signing his 3 year $30 million deal. The Bucs have to dish out some big contracts to bring back their surprisingly successful core from last year, as well as bring in some more talent if they really want to compete. Saving $10 million by cutting your number four receiver who couldn’t even muster 500 yards is an absolute no brainer, and Gage will be searching for a new team this summer.
Jonnu Smith (Falcons, TE)
Savings – $6.5 Million, Dead Money – $2.5 Million
Jonnu Smith has been a relatively reliable pass catcher since he entered the league in 2017, but the third round pick has only one season of over 500 yards and one season with more than three touchdowns. His usage this past year was particularly surprising for the Falcons as head coach Arthur Smith seemed to favor him over 4th overall draft pick, and freak athlete, Kyle Pitts. The decision to call plays for Smith over Pitts made fans and experts alike scratch their heads when trying to figure out what Atlanta was trying to do. Pitts, and other first round talents Bijan Robinson and Drake London, were expected to be the focal point of an up and coming offense, which we rarely got to see. With a new head coaching hire and a very young team that needs reps to grow, I believe the highly overpaid Smith to be cut in short order. This team needs to find a quarterback who can uplift this offense, and Jonnu Smith does not fit the Falcons timeline.
Honorable Mentions:
- Kevin Byard (Philadelphia Eagles, S)
- Savings – $13 Million
- Dead Money – $1.3 Million
- *Taysom Hill (New Orleans Saints, TE)
- Savings – $10 Million
- Dead Money – $5.7 Million
- David Bakhtiari (Green Bay Packers, OT)
- Savings – $20.9 Million
- Dead Money – $19 Million
Players with a * next to their name have numbers represented after a post June 1 cut.
