Anthony Richardson has quickly become one of the NFL Draft’s most hyped-up players…but is he worth it? Time to look at the tape.
The tale of Anthony Richardson is a peculiar one. Just a couple of months ago, Richardson wasn’t even regarded as a top-five quarterback entering the draft. Now, he’s being argued for as a top-five pick.
NFL scouts are split on Richardson, enamored by his physical traits and allowing them to drive the hype behind his success at the University of Florida for the Gators. Yet some believe that he’s another bust, hiding his flaws behind his tangible features.
Richardson stands at 6’4″ and 232 lbs, a big frame for an NFL quarterback. Anthony Richardson rose to the top of scouts lists throughout the 2022 college football season– his first as a full starter. In his 13 games as the Gators’ QB, he led them to a 6 win season, landing them in the middle of the pack in the SEC East. Look past his average team record as a college quarterback and the traits innately become apparent– the Gainesville native is a physical specimen.
His big frame has led scouts to draw comparisons to prime Cam Newton, burly paired with the ability to run. On exterior and and measurables alone, Richardson is the full package.
Move past that, and you start to see why some NFL scouts are calling him the next JaMarcus Russell.
Questions swirl about his pocket presence and his accuracy abilities. Richardson managed to post a decent 53.8% completion percentage but has spooked scouts with a 1.89 TD/INT ratio. However, his consistent improvement in some form has encouraged even the worst of critics enough to propel him up draft boards and land him confidently in the top-10 according to some football pundits.
When It Rains It Pours
Anthony Richardson has shown remarkable improvements over the 2022 season, enough for plenty of NFL scouts to put more and more faith in him as the year progressed and even into the offseason. From Day 1 of his starting resume against Utah, Richardson showed change for the better from drive to drive, the most evident of which can be seen in his ability to step up in the pocket.
His first couple of series showed him getting flustered too easily– as is natural for his first start and escaping the pocket laterally too early. This ran him into snags early on with him not being able to get enough power or torque to throw deep balls down the field. Throughout the game, scouts were eager to point out his amelioration in that department. He seemed more confident as the day went on, making throws that he didn’t make in the infancy of the game simply by fixing his mistakes and trusting in his offensive line to keep him safe.
The hometown recruit’s abilities to be a dual threat quarterback in an offense that seemed typical to what you’d find in an NFL offense showed critics that he could be a force to reckon with in the NFL. A reaper of circumstance, Anthony Richardson was lucky enough to play in a straightforward, pass-based offense that directly translates to the pros.
In terms of physical traits, Richardson doesn’t leave a lot to be desired. A monstrous frame, a bazooka on his right arm, and his natural athletic ability have him drawing parallels to the likes of prime 2015 Cam Newton. His 14.48 yards per completion are a true testament to his ability to drive the ball downfield with his powerful arm, one which one could argue is the best in the draft.
Materialistically, Richardson’s measurables are number one in the 2023 quarterback draft pool, bar none. His consistent ability to improve without much of a regression also speaks volumes of his mental capacity as a quarterback. Richardson is raw, but so was Josh Allen and Trevor Lawrence when they first came into the league. The NFL is slowly developing into a league that can transform and refine players without the expectation of immediate impact– a benefit which Richardson will aim to capitalize on.
WILL AR15 BE PAIRED UP WITH A ROOKIE RECEIVER?: Breaking Down the 2023 NFL Draft Wide Receivers; Josh Downs, Parker Washington, and More
A quick glance at Anthony Richardson’s tape will immediately show you one of his biggest strengths– the movement of the pocket. Florida’s offense allowed him to move the pocket at will, and he made it look easy. Throwing touchdowns with the flick of his wrist, it makes sense to use Richardson’s scintillating speed to get him in his comfort zone, in Gainesville at least.
The video below shows Richardson’s trust in his arm to get him outside the pocket and launch an absolute rocket to his receiver on a cross-flood concept. The play is a encapsulation of Richardson’s game which can translate well into a proper NFL offensive system.
His throws resemble lasers straight out of Star Wars with tight spirals. His throw power becomes even more apparent with the benefit of play action passes, allowing him to step into his passes. Richardson’s 10.7 yards per attempt off play action last season ranked ninth among full-time FBS starters, right along some of the sport’s best.
In terms of a prototypical quarterback, all the pieces are there. All he needs is the right coach and scheme to put it all together. The untapped power of Richardson’s dual threat poses a serious asset to much of the NFL. However, it’s not all rainbows and sunshine on Richardson’s end.
His highs come with valleys of lows that make some people doubt whether or not he can truly be successful in the NFL. With a draft prospect as polarizing as Richardson, he must prove that he’s better than his criticism or suffer a snappy career in the league.
Richardson’s Flaws Are A Plenty
Richardson’s pros don’t come without a plethora of flaws. With only one year of starting under his belt, he possesses a raw aura about him that could be enough of a turn off for NFL teams to pass on him. With high upside comes huge risk, especially at his current status as a coveted draft pick. With every first-round draft choice coming at a king’s ransom, Richardson must pay off. In recent history we’ve seen presumed “boom” worthy quarterbacks turn into quick busts with the likes of Zach Wilson and Sam Darnold.
The Florida quarterback’s biggest liability comes with his pocket presence. Yes, we’ve seen him grow up and not become addicted to moving laterally, but it seems like the fear of being sacked has dissuaded him from making the right decision. Richardson has shown significant signs of being a skittish quarterback. At the first sign of pressure he becomes scared to make a throw, almost always choosing to run away instead of standing in and make the right reads.
His mechanics and basics break down and resorts to pure skill, which may have worked against college football defenses and future life insurance salesmen but will be a struggle against top tier NFL defensive units. He makes questionable decisions at times, sending up prayers that his crazy cannon could carry him. When flustered, he becomes a different quarterback, one that posted a 38.7 percent completion rate on attempts vs. pressure which landed him 58th within a group of 66 qualifying passers.
That won’t fly in the NFL, in a more cut-throat environment. Luckily, his aptness to improvement shows that he could clean that up at a higher level– and has proven to be coachable. With the right system, he could thrive in a constructive setting.
Richardson has also drawn criticism for his low production in the Sunshine State; passing for only 2,549 yards and 17 touchdowns in a NFL-style offense. That’s abnormally low for a top-ten passer in the NFL draft despite his physical prowess.
Richardson also breaks down after his first read at times. He routinely gets tripped up by invert coverages and disguised exotic defensive packages. If his first or second progression is gone, he tends to lock up and look like a deer in the headlights and throw a doozy.
In the NFL, with all sorts of unique packages, Richardson needs to improve drastically on the IQ part of the game.
It’s important to note that nearly all of the quarterback’s flaws are fixable in the right scenario, the issue with that is, you usually can’t tell if it’s the right situation until it’s too late.
The Verdict
Anthony Richardson has been one of the NFL’s most divisive prospects, however, with most of his issues being amendable, he’s worth the high cost. You simply cannot turn down a player with the skillset of Richardson along with the willingness to fix his inherent issues. Will he fall into the top-10? Maybe, maybe not. We don’t think so, but anything past picks 15-20 is an absolute steal for Richardson’s value.
